April Cats Higher Than Expected and YoY PIF Growth Flat Vs. March

Research evidence excerpt

April Cats Higher Than Expected and YoY PIF Growth Flat Vs. March

C O M PA N Y N O T E

M a y 2 1 , 2 0 2 6

Allstate Corporation (ALL) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$221.98

We are lowering our 2Q26 estimate after Allstate reported April catastrophe losses which TARGET: US$268.00

were higher than we expected for April while PIF showed flat year-over-year growth Our $268 price target is based on applying a

sequentially. Month-over-month growth was slightly lower than last month. Allstate's multiple of 10.0x our 2027E EPS of $26.80.

elevated catastrophe losses for April is consistent with what we saw with Progressive's

April results. Paul Newsome, CFA, CPCU

Managing Director, Piper Sandler & Co.

312 281-3445, paul.newsome@psc.com

• April's catastrophe losses were $870 million or $687 million after-tax. Losses Cam Bianchi

stemmed from 10 wind and hail events with approximately 70% of the losses related to Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

two events. We are raising our catastrophe load estimate for the second quarter. We 612 456-9841, cam.bianchi@psc.com

now expect catastrophe losses to be $2,029 million for 2Q26 or 13.5% of expected 2Q26 Changes Previous Current

premiums. This represents 2.5% of premiums in auto and 40.0% of premiums in home. Rating — Overweight

We previously expected catastrophe losses to be $1,901 million for 2Q26 or 12.6% of Price Tgt — US$268.00

expected 2Q26 premium. FY26E EPS US$29.50 US$29.11

FY27E EPS — US$26.80

• Policy-in-force continues to grow slowly. Policies-in-force (PIF) grew 2.3% year-over- Market Cap. (mil) US$58,291.9

year and 0.2% month-over-month. This compares to March's year-over-year PIF that Book Value/Share US$113.13

grew 2.3% and 0.4% month-over-month. The month showed lower sequential growth Tang. Book/Share $102.05