Machinery – ACT Research Meeting Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Machinery – ACT Research Meeting Takeaways

Truist Securities

units (up 8.2% y/y). The MD market continues to be weighed down by consumer confidence, and even more so as higher energy prices

tied to the war in Iran reduce household purchasing power, driving small, local/regional service vehicle buyers to remain hesitant. In

addition, large lease-rental companies continue to have excess capacity. These dynamics have led to soft order trends, with little incentive

for the supply chain to ramp production given the current outlook.

2026 Pricing Trends: We are hearing truck OEMs are implementing midyear 2026 price increases of ~$4–$5k to catch up on cost inflation,

though this increase remains below recent cost inflation.

Parts Could Surprise on Upside: Despite parts growth disappointing for OEs like PACCAR (PCAR, Hold), parts growth could surprise

on the upside as carrier fundamentals improve, creating a release of pent-up demand that has built over the past several years. During

the downturn, many fleets faced margin pressure from weak spot rates, elevated costs, and uncertain freight demand, which led them to

defer maintenance spending wherever possible. Instead of repairing trucks as issues arose, operators increasingly sidelined underutilized

equipment or cannibalized parts from inactive units to keep the rest of their fleet running. This dynamic suppressed parts demand while

creating an aging fleet with deferred maintenance needs. As profitability improves and utilization rises, fleets could re-engage with the

parts and service market. The parts market is poised to grow driven not only by cyclical recovery but also by the backlog of deferred

maintenance accumulated during the downturn, which should amplify the typical aftermarket upcycle.