Running Into Resistance... 1Q In-Line But 2Q Soft...

Research evidence excerpt

Running Into Resistance... 1Q In-Line But 2Q Soft...

Broadlines & Hardlines

Dollar Stores - Market Overweight

DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION (DG) May 19, 2026

Running Into Resistance... 1Q In-Line But 2Q Soft... Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $106.23

1Q SSS appear roughly in-line, but we are cautious on the start to 2Q as data has Price Target:

softened. Freight costs will be an incremental headwind, and promos did screen $135

high in our store checks. While the initial guide was conservative, we see increased Prior: $157

% Upside:

risks to the outlook. 27.2%

View DG Model

The upcoming CEO change will also be top of mind, as Vasos has made progress View Comp Table

stabilizing the business, and a new leader could shift the strategy in 1Q27. With Company Information

investor sentiment having already turned negative, a lot is already baked in here, 52-Week Range $94 - $158

and could potentially be the main driver of upside on print day. The valuation isn't Market Cap. (MM) $23,395

Enterprise Value (MM) $38,037

demanding at <14x, but the near-term fundamentals are challenging. Shares Out. (MM) 220.2

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $355.99

(=/-) 1Q SSS Unchanged at +2.5%... Lowering 2Q Modestly Given Slow Start & SI% of Float 3.7%

1Q Exit Rate. We're leaving our SSS estimates for 1Q unchanged at +2.5% (vs.

consensus at +2.2%), just slightly ahead of the 'low-2's' guide given after the slow Price Performance

YTD LTM

start to the quarter. The noise this quarter from winter storms and higher fuel prices DG (20)% 14%

has slowed the momentum we saw into Q4, and our data read suggests a line in 1Q. S&P 500 8% 25%

Though we'd caution that DG's data remains choppy. For 2Q, it looks a bit bumpier, 170

leading us to lower estimates for the quarter. 160