Softer April Auto PIF Growth and Elevated Cats

Research evidence excerpt

Softer April Auto PIF Growth and Elevated Cats

Financials | Global Insurance - P&C

May 21, 2026

The Allstate Corporation David Motemaden, CFA Thomas Gallagher, CFA 212-497-0832 212-446-9439

ALL | $221.21 David.Motemaden@evercoreisi.com Thomas.Gallagher@EvercoreISI.com

In Line | Target Price/Base Case: $225.00 Peter Knudsen Nicolas Lu

Company Update 212-708-8497 212-497-0812

Peter.Knudsen@evercoreisi.com Nicolas.Lu@evercoreisi.com

Softer April Auto PIF Growth and Elevated

Company Statistics

Cats 52-Week Range $188.08 - $219.48

Market Capitalization (M) $54,773 This AM, ALL reported that it grew auto PIF by +47k in April vs

Shares Outstanding (M) 267 March, below +88k ISI and the +66k implied cons. The +47k auto

Dividend Yield 2.0% PIF adds were down -28k YoY (Fig1) likely due to increased

Upside/Downside 8.1% competition (PGR also had a softer April). We suspect that attrition is

Price/Earnings 5.23 less of a headwind as ALL puts through limited price changes on

Forward P/E 8.59 renewal business that results in less of a gap compared to price

Price/Book Value 3.15

decreases in the rest of the industry (Fig2). We have been worried that Fiscal Year End Dec

this 1-2pt renewal price differential would keep attrition elevated at ALL

while retention improves in the rest of the industry, resulting in fewer

new app opportunities, but ALL has been able to still generate solid new Earnings Summary

business (Fig 3). ALL continues to submit flattish renewal price

2026E 2027E 2028E increases which are now about in line with the industry (fig 4-5) which

EPS Q1 $10.65A $7.91 .. should work its way into renewal rates over the next 6mo to help with

Q2 $4.42 $4.06 .. retention

Q3 $5.04 $4.85 ..

Q4 $7.68 $7.67 .. ALL also indicated that it will stop disclosing monthly PIF after the May