WF Ag Monthly (May 2026): WASDE Sees Stronger Pricing in 2027/Farmer Fireside Tidbits (+)

Research evidence excerpt

WF Ag Monthly (May 2026): WASDE Sees Stronger Pricing in 2027/Farmer Fireside Tidbits (+)

Equity Research

Industry Update — May 18, 2026

Chemicals

WF Ag Monthly (May 2026): WASDE Sees

Stronger Pricing in 2027/Farmer Fireside

Tidbits (+)

Our Call Michael Sison

The May WASDE initial 2026/27 outlook shows tighter forward grain balances, with lower Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Michael.Sison@wellsfargo.com | 440-662-9664

corn yields and output driving crop prices. Farmer fireside suggests fertilizer prices could

Abigail J. Ebertslock in at very high levels for 2027. Top ideas are NTR and CF.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Abigail.Eberts@wellsfargo.com | 332-877-5728

Ag Call: We believe disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East will continue to

tighten global fertilizer balances, supporting higher nitrogen pricing despite weak farm

economics. We favor CF (OW) for highest nitrogen leverage and NTR for balanced

exposure. MOS should see higher phosphate prices, but volumes will likely be constrained

due to sulfur. We remain encouraged by CTVA's ongoing organic growth across both

businesses, while FMC remains more challenged.

Fireside with Templeton Family Farms: Following our conversation with Matt Danner of

Templeton Family Farms, we believe that elevated prices may have an impact on volumes

when farmers look to make purchases for the next planting season (75% of acres locked in

by mid-December, initial offers in late July). We believe farmers will delay fertilizer orders

in hopes that pricing may come down. If prices do not moderate this would likely lead to a

shift and/or decrease in planted acreage.

May WASDE – Improving Forward Balances Support Firmer Pricing into 2027: The