FirstLook

Research evidence excerpt

FirstLook

Evercore ISI Focus

Elevance Health, Inc (ELV) Elizabeth Anderson (212-446-5632)

ELV - In Line; Price Target $360.0 elizabeth.anderson@evercoreisi.com

How Much Upside Is There to MCOs? (Adding ELV to TAP Outperform)

The recent performance of MCO stocks raises inquiries about remaining upside potential, and the outlook for ELV appears

particularly promising. Adding ELV to the TAP Outperform list reflects strong expectations for upward momentum into Q2

earnings. Other MCOs are also positioned for potential gains, with varying degrees of risk and opportunity.

Market Positioning: Despite a notable recent climb, the MCO landscape remains attractive in the long run, backed by multi-year

earnings narratives. Current trends point toward a possible deceleration, but this could translate into better operating margins and

reserve releases for key players.

Elevance (ELV) Outlook: ELV stands out with an estimated 11-21% upside potential to 2026 adjusted EPS if current trends

hold, bolstered by favorable management comments and data indicating cost reductions in behavioral health-keeping stock

momentum strong.

UnitedHealth (UNH) Insights: While UNH is also positioned for gains, its current multiple reflects much of the anticipated

improvement already. Estimated upside ranges from 10-20% to 2026 EPS, supported by likely reserve releases.

CVS Considerations: CVS appears attractively priced at a lower multiple, but 2026 EPS upside is more modest at 7-14%.

Effective management strategies could lead to gradual improvements as reservations ease.

Humana (HUM) Dynamics: The upside potential for HUM is currently priced high, with significant MA margin recovery already

baked in. Future earnings outcomes appear binary, suggesting caution around volatility ahead of Q2 results.