Diaper War: Procter Counterpunches

Research evidence excerpt

Diaper War: Procter Counterpunches

Consumer | Global Household & Personal Care

May 18, 2026

Robert Ottenstein Diaper War: Procter Counterpunches

212-653-9020

Robert.Ottenstein@evercoreisi.com

Javier Escalante This counterpunch is already visible on shelf: 1) Pampers

212-446-9477 promoted at Costco at a (10)% discount, 2) Walmart is clearing

Javier.Escalante@evercoreisi.com shelves with rollbacks to make room for a new mid-tier Pampers

Swaddlers, while Kimberly’s Huggies packaging emphasizes

value, pages 2-4. Financially, the question for Procter is how to

deliver this counterpunch without further pressuring the U.S.

diaper profit pool —and, with it, Procter's industry-leading

profitability, page 5. Diapers are the lowest-margin business

reporting into Baby & Family Care, a division that runs with a ~9-

point operating margin advantage over Kimberly's. Countering

trade-down pressures, premium Pampers Amore is also rolling

out. But we expect U.S. diapers to stay volatile and deflationary

near term, despite cost pressure from oil-derivative inputs like

super-absorbents. How Procter’s counterpunch lands hinges

upon on three bigger-picture points:

1) Chinese brands appear to be peaking. Both household

penetration and volume share have plateaued, even as

points of distribution continued to climb in 1Q 26 (page 13)

— likely through additional shelf space taken at the expense

of U.S.-made private label. Nearly a year after Walmart

added a second China-imported diaper, Millie Moon, to

complement Rascals, there is no meaningful change in store

traffic: judged by retailers' share of wallet, Amazon is the

only gainer (+1.6 pts, page 10), accruing the continued

losses at Target (page 11). Using diapers as a loss leader

is proving expensive — and it isn't diverting store traffic.