Muddle Through Becoming the Base Case

Research evidence excerpt

Muddle Through Becoming the Base Case

n we run a residual

▪ Commodity Forecast & Outlook value analysis for the refiners under coverage to determine what is

▪ Onshore and Offshore Rig Rundown imbedded in valuations. A windfall approximating 2022 levels is

▪ Stock Performance imbedded in current valuation at VLO (forward cracks above this level

currently) while the more diversification at MPC and PSX provides a

Upcoming Events wider margin of safety if one accepts the SOTP logic. Our simple view:

refiners remain the primary and most visible beneficiary of the crisis and

ISI Energy Rundown – Thursdays at 10AM ET it is increasingly clear the path to ‘normal’ (and higher than mid-cycle

Register here cracks) is likely well into 2027. Details within.

Please contact your Evercore ISI sales rep for details

ICYMI – DVN: Resuming Coverage at In Line. The combined entity

Links to Prior Reports provides scale in core onshore basins, synergy+ capture opportunity,

May 2026 and plenty of portfolio options should management look to arb the asset

▪ Something Has to Give to equity market dislocation. DVN screens attractively versus large-cap

▪ Drinking from a Firehose E&P peers, offers a ~13-14% unlevered FCF yield at current strip, and

a path to value unlock. A potential sale of the Anadarko basin is a April 2026

potential near-term catalyst (we see $5.5-6.0 Bn of value) that has ▪ Markets Got a Truce, Barrels Need Flow

captured market interest. While the market awaits clarity from

▪ Headline Truce, Physical Friction

management on the path forward, portfolio, and strategy our only issue

▪ Back from the Brink, Far From De-risked entry point and would look for some of the geopolitical risk premium to

▪ Fat Tails Abound exit the prompt of the commodity market before revisiting view.