NAMS: Path to PREVAIL-ing, Part 1: Success at the Interim is Feasible with BROADWAY-Like HR

Research evidence excerpt

NAMS: Path to PREVAIL-ing, Part 1: Success at the Interim is Feasible with BROADWAY-Like HR

Biotechnology May 18, 2026

Debjit Chattopadhyay, Ph.D.

debjit.chattopadhyay@guggenheimpartners.com NAMS: Path to PREVAIL-ing, Part 1: Success at the Interim is Feasible with

212 823 6584 BROADWAY-Like HR Moritz Reiterer, Ph.D.

moritz.reiterer@guggenheimpartners.com

212 372 6368 Key Message: Our preliminary analysis indicates a 73% PoS for the PREVAIL Ph 3 to be stopped for efficacy following the interim

Ry Forseth, Ph.D. with a HR of 0.77. Should PREVAIL succeed at the IA, we expect the stock to trade 80+% higher from current levels, implying an ~

ry.forseth@guggenheimpartners.com $9B fully diluted market cap, i.e., ~2x our projected $4.5B peak sales. The 0.77 HR is in line with the MACE-4 benefit evident after a

212 518 9226 single year across the Ph 3 studies BROOKLYN + BROADWAY and hence plausible for PREVAIL, given: 1) baseline similarities and

1-yr event rate compared to BROADWAY; 2) CVOT meta-analysis where MACE-4 benefit of LDL-C reduction is expected to increase Hannah Wei

hannah.wei@guggenheimpartners.com substantially from ~12% per mmol/L in year 1 to 20+% at year 3 and beyond, important since we estimate median f/u of 3.5 years for

212 518 5896 the IA; & 3) obicetrapib offers benefits beyond LDL-C [LDL-P, Lp(a)], which may be particularly impactful in a modern, statin-optimized

population. Furthermore, we 1) model ~300 additional events reflecting change to total revasc.; & 2) associate a modest 4% alpha

spend at the interim, preserving most of the power for the final, if needed.

NAMS BUY With stringent assumptions on alpha spend, our analysis points to HR of ≤0.81 for PREVAIL to have a >50% PoS NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V.

Sector: Biotechnology at the interim