AJB: Model update post 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

AJB: Model update post 2Q26

AJ Bell plc

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Sector Perform, Price Target: 510pAJ Bell plc

650 125 Weeks 22DEC23 - 13MAY26 • Dual-pronged growth. AJB's double platform proposition

600 is well positioned to capitalise on the structural growth

550 opportunities afforded to the UK wealth sector via both the

500 CURRENTCURRENTTARGETTARGET 510.00510.00510.00510.00 D2C and advised channels.

400 • Resilient asset gathering performance. Net flow

350 performance was strong in CY25, we expect helped by

300 increased marketing expenditure and investments in price.

250 The D2C platform remains the growth engine, delivering

15m organic growth of 18% for FY25, and we continue to expect

10m

5m double-digit D2C organic growth across our forecast period.

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M • Income composition merits consideration. Revenue

AJB LN Rel. FT ALL SHARE INDEX MA 40 weeks generated from higher interest on client cash has prompted

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target material EPS upgrades; however, it has also markedly

Valuation changed income composition. With FY25 results, AJB

Our price target for AJ Bell is derived from a discounted disclosed for the first time that 43% of group revenues

cash flow model. We use a three-stage model, where we came from client interest turn, which we see as potentially

apply a Risk Discount Rate of 9.5% and a terminal growth less sustainable than other ad valorem charges. Taking into

assumption of 2.5%. Whilst the weighting of WMs is not consideration net finance income (on corporate cash), we

entirely to equities, we highlight that the operating leverage expect interest income to comprise >100% of AJB's PBT over