UK Wealth Management: Sector update Q3 2026

Research evidence excerpt

UK Wealth Management: Sector update Q3 2026

n the MSCI World Index, up 13%. The higher stock of assets helps to

support an enhanced earnings growth outlook for most names. See pp9-10 for detailed EPS revisions

for all names.

Sector themes emerging for 2H 2026

Developments in the following areas could be relevant to share prices over the rest of 2026:

• Political uncertainty: Andy Burnham looks highly likely to be the next UK Prime Minister, but key

cabinet positions – including Chancellor of the Exchequer – remain unconfirmed. Another uncertain

run-up to the November Budget seems plausible given the scope for changes to pension taxation. We

have written about structural DC pension growth and potential policy change mitigations here.

• Regulatory developments: The skilled person review at RAT has re-raised regulatory risk concerns,

though we view this as an isolated incident as our base case. CP26/24 proposes bringing client

interest margin under Consumer Duty, potentially requiring enhanced disclosure on client cash. We

also expect wider Targeted Support deployment across the sector in 2H, with AJB and QLT among the

wealth names having secured the required permissions.

• Pensions IHT changes: With DC pensions moving into the net for calculation of IHT from April 2027

onwards, we look for evidence of changes in client behaviour, including higher pension outflows due

to increased gifting.

Stock focus: Retain Outperform ratings on IHP, QLT, RAT and TAM.

Moving in to reporting season we highlight IHP as a top pick. We are more upbeat on the long-term

positioning of the platform following the recent event with Transact CEO Tom Dunbar, our flow forecasts

are ahead of VA consensus for Cal' Q2, and we still see a clear valuation argument vs closest peer AJB