4Q results: guidance/buyback underwhelm, but upbeat on management’s resolve

Research evidence excerpt

4Q results: guidance/buyback underwhelm, but upbeat on management’s resolve

14 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Printing

Earnings Results

Toppan Holdings (7911)

Rating: Buy Price Objective ¥6,000

Share price (14 May) ¥5,372

Implied upside +12% Results comment

TSE Segment Prime Although we believe there may be a negative short-term share price

reaction to Toppan Holdings’ 4Q FY3/26 results announcement, ourMajor indicators (E = Mizuho estimates)

Market capitalization (¥b) 1,583.16 impression is positive. The many negatives, or aspects that may fall short of

Shares outstanding (m) 294.71 investor expectations, of the announcement include below-target FC-BGA

Potential share dilution (m) –

Daily turnover (thou, mo. avg.) 1,567.92 results, weak FY3/27 guidance (with unexpectedly high next-generation

Foreign ownership (%, 9/25) 29.3 development costs), the fact that guidance does not account for the impact

DPS(¥, 3/27E) 56.0

Dividend Yield(%, 3/27E) 1.0 of the Middle East conflict, and a disclosed share buyback worth only ¥50b.

Payout ratio(%, 3/27E) 22.0 Nonetheless, the company’s management has committed to an ROE of

Equity ratio(%, 3/27E) 53.4

BPS(¥, 3/27E) 4,734.9 8% (10% long term) in the new medium-term plan, and we feel it deserves

PBR(x, 3/27E) 1.1 credit for the steps it is taking to achieve the ROE target, such as driving

ROE(%, 3/27E NP basis) 5.5

ROA(%, 3/27E RP basis) 4.2 forward business portfolio reforms that include the withdrawal from low-

Note: No. of shares includes treasury stock earning businesses, as well as demonstrating balance sheet reforms in the

Absolute and TOPIX-relative share price form of a 20% reduction of total assets and a minimum 100% total payout

ratio. We think Toppan Holdings’ FC-BGA guidance is conservative and