Travis Perkins PLC: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Travis Perkins PLC: Risk Reward Update

Update

May 18, 2026 10:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MTravis Perkins PLC | Europe Annelies Vermeulen

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4367

Travis Perkins PLC (TPK.L, TPK LN)

What’s Changed Business Services | United Kingdom

Travis Perkins PLC (TPK.L) From To Stock Rating Equal-weight

Price Target 740p 685p Industry View Attractive

Price target 685p

Bull Case 1,050p 970p

Shr price, close (May 15, 2026) 510p

Base Case 740p 685p 52-Week Range 724-503p

Bear Case 465p 420p

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Updated Components

EPS (p)** 30.3 28.0 39.4 52.0

EPS

Prior EPS (p)** - 32.5 44.6 56.4

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Investment Drivers Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Travis Perkins PLC (TPK.L) has been updated

Reason for change

We update estimates for the 1Q26 trading update. We lower our assumptions for

FY26, given a muted start to the year and increasing macro uncertainty, creating

ongoing headwinds to RMI spending. Our FY26 organic growth forecast trims down

to 1% (vs 2% previously) and our adjusted operating profit (including ~£5m property

profits) forecast comes down c.10% to £131m, as we bake in a slower end market

recovery alongside slower margin recovery due to cost pressures, and our FY27

moves down by a similar level on the lower FY26 base. Overall, our FY26-28e EPS

estimates are downgraded by c. 11% on average, and our PT comes down 8% to

685p. On our new estimates, the shares now trade on ~6x EV/EBITDA in 2026e,

which is below history but looks fair in our view given the ongoing end market