1H26 Results due on Tuesday 4 August

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Results due on Tuesday 4 August

its basis. With JEFe carrying 1H26

volumes c.-2% YoY and pricing c.+2%, this margin squeeze reflects both negative operating

leverage and cost inflation not fully offset by pricing. While the group has not disclosed the

1H/2H phasing of the guided c.£5m FY26 property profits, the small scale of these is unlikely

to move the needle for the period. While we do not forecast interim net debt, we expect the

balance sheet to have remained in a strong position (at end-FY25, Travis sat on a small net

cash position pre-IFRS 16).

Market outlook expected to be unexciting; JEFe remains below consensus. Although unclear

whether the update will contain quantitative guidance, we expect any commentary to be fairly

unexciting given the recent step-up in UK political uncertainty and ongoing cost volatility. Key

investor topics are likely to include any provisional view on 2H26 demand, comfort in passing

through any further cost inflation, scope for demand destruction from price increases, and

potential strategic initiatives under new management going forward. Consensus FY26 EBITA

now sits at c.£128m (i.e. in line with where management seemed comfortable post-1Q26), so

this has clearly moved down from the pre-1Q26 consensus of c.£142m. JEFe remains a little

below consensus (c.£123m) on slightly more conservative top line and margin assumptions.

Despite downward revisions to consensus in recent weeks, JEFe remains high single-digits

below in future years. All forecasts seem to still be including the loss-making Toolstaton

Benelux (clarity on the future of this is due at 1H26).

Priyal Woolf * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8183 | pwoolf@jefferies.com

Glynis Johnson * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.com