Q1 - Solid Results Reinforce 2026 Guidance; Steady Progress on Growth Projects

Research evidence excerpt

Q1 - Solid Results Reinforce 2026 Guidance; Steady Progress on Growth Projects

s for Q1/26, NPI maintained 2026E adj. EBITDA guidance $1.45-1.65B and EBITDA (mm) $1,253 $1,563 $1,711 $1,711

FCF/sh $1.05-1.25. No surprise given that it is early in the year and renewable resource Consensus Estimates

conditions can vary significantly. (2) On construction projects: the 1,022MW Hai Long 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

project in Taiwan (31% NPI) has 51 of 73 turbines installed, 32 turbines generating

CFPS $4.86 $4.99 $5.60

power, and tracking to 2027 in-service; the 1,140MW Baltic Power offshore wind project

in Poland (49% NPI) is still expected to commence operations H2/26, with 38 of 76 Valuation

turbines installed to date; and the 80MW Jurassic BESS project in Alberta expected in- 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

service by YE2026. (3) On development, the Poland BESS continues to advance, with the EV/EBITDA 11.0x 9.7x 8.4x 7.9x

100MW Kamionka project securing key permits and expected to start construction by DCF Yield 6.2% 5.0% 6.5% 6.4%

end of H1/26 and 200MW Mieczysławów expected to follow H2/26. Overall, the active

QTR. CFPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

development pipeline has shrunk to 8GW from 9.2GW as NPI will no longer develop the

2024A $1.65 $0.70 $0.74 $0.76previously-paused 100MW High Bridge onshore wind project in NY and 990MW offshore

wind project in Korea. 2025A $1.26 $0.80 $0.88 $1.21

Thoughts on the stock. We expect NPI shares to trade in-line with peer group on the 2026E $1.57a $0.82 $0.88 $1.34

day given no change in 2026 guidance and construction projects on track.

Unchanged estimates. After updating for Q1/26 results, our 2026/27/28E adj. EBITDA

estimates are unchanged ($1,563M/$1,711M/$1,711M).

Key Changes

Target Estimates Q2 / 26E 2026E 2027E

$24.00↑ CFPS $4.62 $4.53