Above Normal Q1 Offshore Wind Resource; High-Grading Prospective Projects

Research evidence excerpt

Above Normal Q1 Offshore Wind Resource; High-Grading Prospective Projects

Alternative Energy

Northland Power Inc.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

May 13, 2026

Price: C$23.56 (05/13/2026) Above Normal Q1 Offshore Wind Resource;

Price Target: C$24.00 High-Grading Prospective Projects

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 66/100

Sean Steuart, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 308 3399

Q1 EBITDA and FCF/share benefited from above-normal renewable power production. The

sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com

2026 EBITDA and FCF/share guidance ranges are unchanged. NPI dropped two projects from

John Mould, CFA^ its prospective development pipeline, presumably tied to management's strict return hurdles.

416 944 6832 We expect that the call will focus on construction updates, the prospective development

john.mould@tdsecurities.com

queue, and funding options.

Key Data

Symbol TSX: NPI-T Event

Market Cap C$6.2B

NPI reported Q1/26 results tonight. Adjusted EBITDA of $427.4 million was above our estimate

of $415.0 million and the consensus forecast of $423.6 million. FCF/share of $0.70 (before

development expenses) exceeded both our estimate of $0.59 and consensus of $0.52.

Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance; construction continues to advance at Hai Long and

Baltic Power (offshore wind).

Conference Call: tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. ET: (pre-registration link, or webcast)

Impact: Slightly Positive for the Share Price Given Construction Progress

■Q1/26 recap. Offshore wind generation was 4% above our forecast and 7% above historical

LTA, supporting a modest beat from that segment. Corporate costs were also below our

forecast. The FCF/shr beat was primarily driven by higher-than-forecast adj. EBITDA and

operating cash flow, as well as other items.

■Construction update.