NORTHLAND POWER INC (=) : Seeking Visibility to ‘28+ Tailwinds

Research evidence excerpt

NORTHLAND POWER INC (=) : Seeking Visibility to ‘28+ Tailwinds

EQUITIES

UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY

NEUTRAL TARGET PRICE EPS 26e EPS 27eNORTHLAND POWER INC PRICE* CAD23.6  TARGET PRICE CAD21 (DOWNSIDE 11%) unchanged non material  3%

Seeking Visibility to ‘28+ Tailwinds

NPI has recovered >35% from post-dividend cut lows as progress on Hai Long (51 of 73 installed,14 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report 32 generating power vs. 20 disclosed 4Q25 print) and Baltic Power (on track to achieve 2H26

Production time: 19:55* (London time)

COD) backstops confidence in NPI’s ability to meet ‘26 guidance. That said, the 1Q26 update

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

offered little incremental detail on NPI’s growth plans post-Hai Long and Baltic Power – and it’s

Heidi Hauch difficult for investors to underwrite significant EBITDA / FCF growth ‘28+ with growth plans stillBNP Paribas Securities Corp1

(+1) 646 342 9635 unconfirmed (note Street ests ~flat to down thru ’30 vs. ’28). Mgmt. highlighted potential Canada

Heidi.Hauch@us.bnpparibas.com nat. gas build (Collisard) during the Investor Day, though it’s unconfirmed whether NPI will

Moses Sutton ultimately reach FID there. Most likely in our view, NPI pursues another offshore wind project in EU

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 (see here). While this does re-up large project risk post-Hai Long & Baltic COD, we’re encouraged

(+1) 646 342 2181 by mgmt’s latest actions to high-grade the investment pipeline, abandoning less economic & riskier

moses.sutton@us.bnpparibas.com

South Korea OSW and floating Scotwind OSW projects in recent quarters. All said, we remain on

Joseph Nussbaum the sidelines pending better visibility to 2028+ EBITDA & FCF growth. Maintain Neutral, $21 TP.

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1