Expert Opinion: Novelis on Track, but Aluminum Pain Will Linger

Research evidence excerpt

Expert Opinion: Novelis on Track, but Aluminum Pain Will Linger

Industry Update Equity Research

Exhibit 1 - Estimated F-Series Aluminum Cost Premium

Pounds Price/Tonne Price/Pound Cost / Truck Spot MWP

Today

Aluminum 1,050 $6,293 $2.85 $2,997 $3,729 $2,564

Steel 1,365 $1,070 $0.54 $730

Aluminum Premium $2,267

End 2024

Aluminum 1,050 $3,031 $1.37 $1,443 $2,516 $515

Steel 1,365 $709 $0.35 $484

Aluminum Premium $960

Source: FactSet; Bloomberg; Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates

Kaustubh Chandorkar, Independent Consultant

Kaustubh Chandorkar (KC) has spent more than three decades in the aluminum industry, working

across every major market—from automotive and aerospace to beverage packaging and industrial

products. He began his career with Alcoa and Arconic, helping shape downstream growth strategies

and customer programs during some of the company’s most transformational years. Later, at Hulamin,

he led North American partnerships with leading automakers and packaging companies, bringing a

deep understanding of trade flows and material substitution trends. Most recently, Kaustubh headed

North American Aluminum Analysis at CRU, where he guided the firm’s market research on metal

supply, scrap dynamics, and tariff policy. He’s known for translating complex data into clear, actionable

insights—and for his balanced perspective on how trade, recycling, and decarbonization are reshaping

the metals sector. Today, as founder of Chandorkar Consulting LLC, he advises producers, investors,

and OEMs on strategy, market positioning, and long-term industry trends.

Kaustubh has a Master of Business Administration from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor,

Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering from Florida State University and Bachelor of Mechanical