April Retail Sales: 5.3% Strong. May is the Post Refund Test

Research evidence excerpt

April Retail Sales: 5.3% Strong. May is the Post Refund Test

May 15, 2026

in certain markets, GLP-1 impacts on basket size and volatile weather, but the trend line is clearly improving. We continue to look

for 2.5% growth for the grocery industry in C26, within the historical 2.5-3% norm. Grocers offering extreme value continue to win

share (Walmart, clubs). The healthy-eating wave had moderated against tough comparisons yet we see SFM as positioned for

improvement as compares ease into 2H26, initiatives build, and inflation likely ticks higher on the back of heighted oil prices framing

a positive Risk Reward at 14.5x. KR is our top value pick at 12x (i.e. a 40%+ S&P discount) with new CEO Greg Foran to help

elevate in-store execution alongside additional comp and margin tailwinds. CASY is Outperform-rated at 40x C27 P/E as the

company appears well-positioned to deliver top-quartile sales and EBITDA growth as it wins profitable market share in a large and

fragmented c-store space with a near term gas CPG turbocharger.

Auto Parts decelerated modestly to +1.6% YoY in April, roughly flat MoM vs March (+1.7%) but a notable step-down from

the +4.5% Feb pace and now running below the prior 3-month trend of ~+3.4%. The deceleration likely reflects timing of tariff

pass-through being more concentrated in late-2025/early-2026 prints, with same-SKU pricing benefits now becoming less of a

sequential tailwind. That said, the tariff flow-through story should continue through 1H26 before 'wrapping' in the back half of the

year. The Big Four (ORLY/AZO/GPC/AAP) have passed through several hundred bps on same-SKU inflation, with AAP and GPC

passing on slightly less than ORLY and AZO — but still 300-600bps across the group. Auto part retailers remain in a favorable spot