1Q Roll Rates: Early Roll In-line But Late Roll Somewhat Worse Than Seasonal

Research evidence excerpt

1Q Roll Rates: Early Roll In-line But Late Roll Somewhat Worse Than Seasonal

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

May 14, 2026

■Diversified Financials: Consumer Finance 1Q Roll Rates: Early Roll In-line But Late Roll

Somewhat Worse Than Seasonal

Moshe Orenbuch THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1495

Roll rates indicate continued credit stability at the issuers we track, with BFH's early roll and

moshe.orenbuch@tdsecurities.com

COF's late roll getting closer to pre-pandemic level. Early roll performance in general was in

Hoang Nguyen, CFA line with seasonality in 1Q26, though late roll was worse than seasonality. Since the reopening,

646 562 1337 AXP and SYF have outperformed, particularly in early roll rates, though BFH is now catching

hoang.nguyen2@tdsecurities.com

up.

Our data combine COF and Discover (also for historical periods) as a result of their merger.

Early roll: In aggregate, early roll overall was in line with seasonality in 1Q26, though SYF saw

slightly worse-than-seasonal performance. The second derivative has been stable across

issuers and is still generally, below pre-pandemic levels as well as flat to down on a year-

over-year basis, which should continue to support stable losses. Early roll is still above pre-

pandemic levels at COF and BFH while in line to slightly better at AXP and SYF. That said, we

note that BFH is getting close to pre-pandemic level which is a positive, as it demonstrates the

effectiveness of its tightened underwriting over the past year.

Late roll: Overall, this was worse than seasonality in 1Q26 at all of our issuers, and we will

continue to monitor this. Meanwhile, late roll's second derivative has generally been stable at

issuers. Late roll is still above pre-pandemic levels at COF, SYF, and BFH (those with more non-