Fundamentally Solid, but Challenged by Lofty Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Fundamentally Solid, but Challenged by Lofty Expectations

May 12, 2026

Key Takeaways

 The company posted a modest revenue beat ($122M vs. cons $120M) and raise on the guide ($130M vs. cons

$126M), directly in line with our previewed figure of $130M.

 Mgmt. guided for >25% growth H/H for CY26 with the potential for additional upside based on the timing of

orders and deliveries between C4Q26 and C1Q27. CAMT is seeing a strong 2H pipeline of orders (unprecedented

level of orders through first four months) and this, coupled with existing backlog and ongoing interaction with

customers, is driving the positive outlook. This outlook implies CY26 revenues of ~$565M or +mid-teens% Y/Y,

and we had previewed CAMT needing to signal growth of at least 25%+ Y/Y for investors to get excited on the

name (a figure that would roughly equate to what we’ve heard from PC peers). Management remains

exceedingly bullish on CY27 (with Inspection/Metrology tools seeing upside after Process control) and expects

2H momentum to carry over to a robust CY27. All-in, today’s stock reaction is understandable, though we do

believe management will look to upsize the guide throughout the year.

 Revenue Split in the Q was Advanced Packaging ~70% of revs (HPC ~50%, OSAT ~20%; vs last Q ~50% HPC and

~25% OSAT). Looking forward to CY26 we expect HPC to represent 50-55% of revenues and OSAT AP to represent

~20%, with the rest of revenue stemming from general applications.

 On the HBM side, CAMT received orders from two HBM manufacturers for 3D metrology and 2D inspection

steps, expected to represent $260M+ in revenues through CY27. While management did not provide an exact

split on revenue contribution, the company does expect a significant portion to flow through in CY26. Further,

mgmt.