FirstLook

Research evidence excerpt

FirstLook

ds a need for vigilance on this sector as growth rates

were adjusted downward significantly.

Affirm Holdings, Inc (AFRM) Adam Frisch (212-812-2933)

AFRM - Outperform; Price Target $90.0 Adam.Frisch@evercoreisi.com

2026 Investor Day - Feels like AFRM is just scratching the growth surface

Affirm's recent Investor Day paints a compelling picture of future growth, emphasizing its diverse strategies and enhanced market

positioning. With a new $100B GMV framework projected for FY29 and a growth target exceeding 25%, the presentation

showcased the early stages of an expansive growth strategy across multiple dimensions-geographic expansion, partnerships,

and product evolution.

New Growth Framework: The updated medium-term guidance establishes strong growth prospects, supported by expectations

of revenue-to-GMV ratios of 7.5%-8.5% and steady operating margins (3.75%-4.00% RLTC/GMV). Key growth drivers, such as

merchant POS and direct-to-consumer offerings, indicate a higher growth trajectory than previously outlined, suggesting that 25%

growth is merely a conservative baseline.

Market Penetration Opportunities: Despite a strong performance, Affirm's share of the U.S. eCommerce ecosystem remains

low-only 2.7%. This indicates significant room for GMV growth, particularly through ongoing partnerships with major merchants.

The international market is also seen as a vital avenue, although the need for exceptional differentiation in competitive regions

was acknowledged.

Affirm Card Growth: The Card program shows impressive momentum with 4.4M active cardholders who are spending 130%

more YoY. Management's ambitious target of 20M cardholders and substantial annual spend indicates a strategic shift toward

building a consumer payment network.