Soda And Hard Candy Face Pressure In States With SNAP Restrictions Thru April

Research evidence excerpt

Soda And Hard Candy Face Pressure In States With SNAP Restrictions Thru April

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

May 13, 2026

■Food: Food Producers Soda And Hard Candy Face Pressure In States

■Non-Alcoholic Beverages

With SNAP Restrictions Thru April

Robert Moskow THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1474

Our state level retail data YTD through May 2 continues to indicate weaker volume trends for

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

candy and soda in restricted states than the U.S. average. Hard candy and soft drinks have

Sergio Matsumoto experienced a bigger impact than chocolate, which got a lift from Easter. States representing

646 562 1339 24% of the population have implemented restrictions thus far, including Texas and Florida

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com

most recently in April.

Seamus Cassidy

646 562 1319 Impact On Consumption Through May 2

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com

■Chocolate Less Affected: Category volume growth is down 5% YTD in restricted states. This

Jacob Henry, CFA is -120 bps below the U.S. average compared to in-line during 2025. The pressure has been

646 562 1380 more muted than in other categories as chocolate sales in restricted states outperformed

jacob.henry@tdsecurities.com the U.S. average during the two weeks leading up to Easter.

Victor Ma ■Soft Drinks and Hard Candy Under Greater Pressure: YTD volume in restricted states is

646 562 1306

down 2% and 4% in soft drinks and hard candy. The growth rates are weaker than the U.S.

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com

average by -310 bps and -370 bps. These differences worsened from +70bps and -50bps in

2025.

■Energy Drinks Remains Robust: Category volume growth is up 9% in the impacted states

YTD. This is -590 bps below the rest of the population compared to an -860 bps gap in