Slight sales downside risk in F1H for CAG & GIS

Research evidence excerpt

Slight sales downside risk in F1H for CAG & GIS

Consumer | Food

May 26, 2026

David Palmer Slight sales downside risk in F1H for CAG

212-497-0836

David.Palmer@evercoreisi.com & GIS

John Quartarolo, CFA Summary takeaways from the latest scanner data:

646-784-4638

john.quartarolo@evercoreisi.com ◼ Market share continues to be an issue for most Food names.

Elliott Simon, CFA Overall all-channel Food sales were +0.4% YoY over the last 12-

212-497-0820 weeks and +1% over the last 4-weeks, with our coverage

Elliott.Simon@evercoreisi.com

underperforming by ~2pp (see Figure 1). The underperformance is

James Donnelly

212-812-2904 due to both market share loss within categories and category

James.Donnelly@evercoreisi.com underperformance (see Figure 4).

◼ Pricing power will be limited for those with poor base volume

trends and/or outsized market share loss. We see the biggest

risk to future pricing power and earnings in those companies with

poor base volume performance (e.g., Campbell or Post Holdings)

and/or outsized market share declines (e.g., General Mills). In the

coming year, we anticipate accelerating energy-related inflation

(5%+) to increase the need for pricing power, with the group's high

dividend payouts (~80% on average) and relatively high debt

leverage (~4x on average), adding to uncertainty.

◼ Hershey's sales trends have been heartening (up ~5% in

measured channels) since Easter. HSY will be a key name to

monitor over the next 1–2 months with merchandising activity

ramping in the summer and fall.

◼ Smucker’s trends outside of its coffee and Hostess

(undergoing rationalization/restructuring) have been solid

(see Figure 4). Uncrustables sales remain strong, growing 10%.

◼ Consumption trends imply largely in line F4Q for General Mills

and slight downside for Conagra.