Father’s Day noise?

Research evidence excerpt

Father’s Day noise?

Further discussion

Hershey and General Mills trailing most in category weighted market share

12-week scanner sales were +1%YoY with 4-week sales also growing +1% YoY. The sales of

our large-capitalization coverage were down ~1.5% YoY on average (see Figure X), which

continues to trail overall food. The ~1.5pp of underperformance was largely due to market share

losses in key categories—often to smaller premium brands with better wellness credentials.

Category-weighted market share losses were the greatest for Hershey and General Mills. Note:

our Circana MULO+ data includes Costco and Amazon.

Hershey: Chocolate 4-week sales +0.5%

North America confection sales tracking in line for 2Q; Watching consumption trends for

reacceleration through June and into July. Hershey's overall scanner sales for the last 12

weeks and 4 weeks were flat and +2% YoY, respectively. Hershey’s confectionary consumption

trends slowed with the category in the week of June 14, and we will be watching to see if there

is a Father’s Day timing snapback in the week ending June 21. Quarter-to-date trends along with

some pull forward of shipments would suggest a largely in line 2Q North America confection

consensus organic sales of -1.4%.

Latest 12-week sales were flat YoY driven by Snacks (+8% YoY). 12-week sales ending 6/14 for

candy, mint, and gum (CMG) and chocolate were -2% and -3% (category +2% YoY),

respectively. 4-week CMG and chocolate sales were both +1%. Chocolate category sales growth

for the 4-week period was +4% YoY. The company expected Confection sales for June to

improve through the month (with the overall month towards the low end of +MSD) from stepped-

up merchandising. We note month-to-date Confection sales are down 1% YoY. The company