China Express Delivery Halfway up the hill

Research evidence excerpt

China Express Delivery Halfway up the hill

13 May 2026

Equity Research Report

China Express Delivery EquitiesAir Freight & Logistics

Halfway up the hill China

◆ 2Q earnings likely to double, fueled by extensive price hikes David Wu* (Reg. No. S1700518110001)

Head, A-share Transportation & Logistics Research

◆ Structural transition to the legislated price discipline to solidify HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

pricing david.wu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2002

◆ Prefer YTO and STO (both Buy); maintain Hold on SF-H/A WilliamAnalyst,Sun*,A-shareCFATransportation(Reg. No. S1700522110001)& Logistics

and Yunda HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

william.x.d.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn

+86 21 5066 2061

Strong 1Q results, 2Q26 look even more encouraging. The combined net profit of A-

share franchised express delivery players (i.e., YTO, STO and Yunda) soared 64% y-o-y * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

in 1Q26. Driven by the deepening anti-involution campaign and a low base, we expect not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

their combined net profit to double y-o-y in 2Q26 amid extensive delivery price hikes.

With these stocks trading at their historical trough of c11x 2026e PE, we see significant

re-rating potential as we believe the market has not fully priced in the structural transition

to the legislation on price discipline from the current administrative price controls.

Broad-based price hikes to support earnings growth; fuel headwinds peaking.

Driven by fuel surcharges and the anti-involution campaign, express delivery price

hikes have been seen in over 20 provinces in China, per jwview.com (14 April),

Shenzhen Economic Daily (22 April) and sina.com.cn (11 May). We forecast the