Industrial Metals Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Industrial Metals Weekly

RBC Mining & Materials

Equity Team

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May 11, 2026

RBC Dominion Securities

Inc. Industrial Metals Weekly Sam Crittenden (Analyst)

Andrew D. Wong (Analyst)RESEARCH Copper rising on resilient Chinese demand and supply risks Harrison Reynolds (Analyst)

Ali Mecklai (Associate)

Our view: Copper hit a 3-month high on Monday at ~$6.20/lb following a 4.3% gain last week as Saad Khan (Associate)

risk sentiment improved on a potential US/Iran ceasefire. Supply concerns are growing on rising

RBC Europe Limited

sulphuric acid costs with Ivanhoe signing its most recent contracts at $725/tonne, which it expects Ben Davis (Analyst)

could grow to >$1,000/tonne should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. In such a scenario, we could Marina Calero (Analyst)

see incremental production cuts from African Sx-EW producers which could risk ~10% of the global Laura Chan (Analyst)

copper supply creating a significant right tail for prices in our view. On the demand front, the extent of Royal Bank of Canada,

Chinese willingness to absorb higher prices remains a key question with recent data indicating strong Sydney BranchEQUITY Kaan Peker (Analyst) fundamental demand. Chinese power grid investments in Q1 rose 37% y/y and refined copper intake

rose 9% m/m in April (Mining.com). Concurrently, refining charges hit a new all-time low of -$100/tonne

last week, while Shanghai inventories fell 6% w/w to the lowest point since January. We think refining

charges could still grind lower as smelters may be able to compensate through the sale of acid, however

given the recently enacted Chinese export ban, their ability to realize credits may be limited.