DIA: Softer Q1 as flagged and FY guidance reiterated; eyes on mid-term targets at upcoming CMD

Research evidence excerpt

DIA: Softer Q1 as flagged and FY guidance reiterated; eyes on mid-term targets at upcoming CMD

material cost increase in

plastics.

Next catalyst: We now await Diasorin's new mid-term targets to be presented at its Capital Markets Day on 20th May, and view

any weakness ahead of the event as a buying opportunity.

• We currently estimate +7% CER FY26-30E sales CAGR and margin expansion to 37% by 2030, implying 11% and 15% adj. EBITDA

and earnings CAGRs, respectively. We are broadly in line to 3% above consensus estimates over 2026-28E, but highlight potential

for further upside from faster adoption of its Molecular platforms, where we conservatively assume only c.2ppt. share gains in

each multiplex and point-of-care markets by 2030.

• We also look for more detail on key growth drivers to sustain Diasorin's historically above-market US immunodiagnostics growth,

particularly as we start to account for Roche's potential upcoming QuantiFERON entry - note that Roche may provide more

details at its Dx Day on 12th May.

Revenue: Q1 group revenue was down 8% YoY or 3% YoY at CER to €287m, 1% below VA consensus or 2% below at CER, excluding

the €17m FX headwind.

• Immunodiagnostics +1% at CER (3ppt. below VA cons): Q1 growth was impacted by several headwinds: 1. de-stocking of

QuantiFERON TB products at some large US commercial laboratories linked to reduced immigration visa demand; 2. adverse

weather in Jan/Feb 2026 leading to a temporary decline in US volumes (some recovery reported from March); and 3. structural

factors, including continued China VBP (China sales down c.20% at CER) and weak demand in the Middle East related to the

conflict.

○Excluding China, the base business grew 2% at CER in Q1. Diasorin has maintained segmental guidance for the FY for mid-