DIASORIN SPA (=) : Investor day key takeaways - ambitious targets, but busy pipeline

Research evidence excerpt

DIASORIN SPA (=) : Investor day key takeaways - ambitious targets, but busy pipeline

Refinitiv

rollouts. With the target implying a c20% 2025-2030 CAGR for the franchise (more than 2x market CAGR), and the

group’s inferior time-to-result still making it less competitive for the relatively more attractive inpatient multiplex

market, we argue the target remains ambitious. The group’s GI panel FDA clearance is an important addition to

compete with the market leader (bioMérieux), with the group’s respiratory/GI/BCID menu now covering c75% of

the multiplex market in our view. Management claims the recent PLEX placements have so far been respiratory-

lead, with the weak flu season masking underlying placement progress.

- LIAISON NES, very ambitious target, but decent product: With LIAISON NES having inferior throughput

(SPOTFIRE up to c4x per system placement), relatively smaller panels (SPOTFIRE up to 15 targets, LIAISON

NES up to 4) and mainly targeting lower-throughput settings (POLs), we think it’s fair to assume sales pullthrough

per instrument should be less than half of bioMérieux SPOTFIRE (cEUR20-25k per instrument p.a.). As a result,

we estimate management’s USD150m revenue target by 2030 could imply up to c20k instrument placements,

which may be optimistic considering it implies c3x higher placements p.a. compared to bioMerieux’s SPOTFIRE.

However, we do think the group’s best-in-class workflow, equal-to-gold standard time-to-result and smallest

instrument size could be appealing for many lower-throughput settings, with the women’s health/STI menu

additions (expected around 2029) also instrumental to opening up the market opportunity for DiaSorin.

License Tech (LTG) – targeting LSD-MSD growth to 2030 – still not much to be excited about