US nonfarm payroll (Apr 2026): neither strong nor weak

Research evidence excerpt

US nonfarm payroll (Apr 2026): neither strong nor weak

11 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

Business survey strong, household survey weak; inflation key to FRB’s next move

Private-sector nonfarm payroll employment was up 115,000 MoM in April,Chief Economist:

lagging the 185,000 increase in March but beating the market estimate (65,000Shunsuke Kobayashi

increase; see Figure 1). The combined figure for February and March was+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com revised down by 16,000. The unemployment rate was flat MoM at 4.3%, in line

with the market estimate (4.3%), but the labor force participation rate fell from

61.9% in March to 61.8%, below the market estimate (61.9%). The average

workweek was 34.3 hours, up from 34.2 hours in March and above the market

estimate (34.2 hours). Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% MoM (up 0.2%

in March) and up 3.6% YoY (up 3.4%), falling short of market estimates (gains

of 0.3% MoM, 3.8% YoY).

Overall, the announced data presented a mix of positives and negatives.

Based on the establishment survey, the number of people employed continued

to increase steadily, and this trend also extended across industries. On

the other hand, the household survey showed a decline in the number of

people employed and an increase in involuntary unemployment. That said,

employment does not appear so weak as to prompt the Fed to consider a rate

cut at a time of persistently high inflation. If labor market conditions remain

roughly in line with those at present, the Fed’s next move will likely depend

on inflation. In other words, the Fed will probably consider a rate hike if it is

concerned about soaring mineral resource prices (due to escalating tensions