Toei: F3/26 Results: Conservative Guidance as Expected

Research evidence excerpt

Toei: F3/26 Results: Conservative Guidance as Expected

Update

May 15, 2026 09:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MToei (9605) | Japan Katsumi Arai

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Conservative Katsumi.Arai@morganstanleymufg.comAkiho Toyama +81 3 6836-8918

Akiho.Toyama@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8405

Guidance as Expected

Toei (9605.T, 9605 JT)

Services / Leisure | Japan

Reaction to earnings

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target ¥5,200

consensus EPS Shr price, close (May 15, 2026) ¥5,970

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥373.0

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥0.5

Key Takeaways

Toei is guiding F3/27 OP down 21% YoY

Driving planned earnings decline is Toei Animation (already reported results).

This seems in line Toei’s usually cautious guidance; overall neutral impression

An earnings briefing is scheduled for May 18

Under its typically conservative planning approach, Toei forecasts F3/27 OP of

¥28.7bn (down 21% YoY). While this is nearly ¥9.0bn below our forecast, it is in line

with expectations based on the previously announced plan of consolidated

subsidiary Toei Animation (4816) on May 13. The downside at Toei Animation

(around ¥7.0bn) reflects a conservative outlook, particularly for overseas film and

licensing revenues. In addition, the film-related business plan is also below our

forecast (around ¥1.2bn). Compared with F3/26, when cinema utilization was strong,

the plan appears to incorporate margin deterioration reflecting expectations for a

decline in the overall domestic box office market.

In 4Q, the company recorded gains on asset sales of just under ¥4.0bn.