Machinery – Minor Mix Adjustments, but 2026–2028 NA HD/MD Production Outlook Largely Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Machinery – Minor Mix Adjustments, but 2026–2028 NA HD/MD Production Outlook Largely Unchanged

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report May 11, 2026

INDUSTRIALS: Machinery

Machinery – Minor Mix Adjustments, but

2026–2028 NA HD/MD Production Outlook Jamie Cook, CFA

212-303-4116 Largely Unchanged Jamie.Cook@truist.com

ACT Research released its latest North America commercial vehicle outlook.

Kevin Wilson, CFA

212-590-0996 Heavy Duty (Class 8): ACT Research made minor tweaks to its North American Class

Kevin.S.Wilson@truist.com 8 production outlook for 2026–2028, while keeping the overall heavy-duty forecast

largely unchanged. The 2026 production forecast was lowered to 274.3k units from last

Stephen Farkouh month’s estimate of 274.4k units. ACT noted that it reduced the 2026 tractor production

212-401-4459 forecast by approximately 2.2k units, reflecting early-year build misses, in part related

Stephen.Farkouh@truist.com to production shifts back to the U.S., which limited OEMs’ ability to catch up later in

the year. This reduction was largely offset by a 2.1k unit increase in the vocational

4 Page Document forecast, as demand continues to benefit from robust AI-related investment. ACT also

highlighted that OEMs could ramp vocational truck production more efficiently, given

that these builds are less complex than tractor configurations. The 2027 production

Reasons for this report forecast was raised 1.0% to 270.7k units (down 1.3% y/y), compared with 268.0k units

previously. ACT increased the forecast by 2.7k units, reflecting a more constructive

✓ Quick Reaction to Newsflow/Volatility outlook driven by improving freight rates into 2027 and continued AI-related buildouts.