MSDL: MSDL: New Divvy in Play

Research evidence excerpt

MSDL: MSDL: New Divvy in Play

BDC Equity Research

Wells Fargo Express Takeaways

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) | Rating: Equal Weight | Price Target: $14.00

Analyst: Finian P. O'Shea

Financials Investment Thesis

Our Equal Weight rating is based on MSDL's newer, lower-vintageFY (Dec) 2026E 2027E 2028E

$ portfolio that is beginning to show some impacts from credit

ESTIMATES seasoning (credit marks on near-term maturities).

EPS

Q1 0.47 A 0.45 E 0.42 E

Q2 0.44 E 0.45 E 0.42 E Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios

Q3 0.45 E 0.44 E 0.42 E

Q4 0.45 E 0.42 E 0.42 E

AN 1.81 E 1.76 E 1.69 E Upside Scenario $16.00

WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS

Base Case $14.00

Consensus Estimate 1.83 E 1.79 E 1.76 E * $15.48

Difference from Consensus (1.6)% (3.6)%

Downside Scenario $13.00

VALUATION

P/E 8.6x 8.8x 9.1x $10 $12 $14 $16 $19

Consensus Estimate: Source: FactSet

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate

*As of 05/08/26

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.

Base Case | $14.00 Upside Scenario | $16.00 Downside Scenario | $13.00

Given MSDL's recent credit performance An upside scenario in the near term likely A downside scenario in the near term likely

and its new off-balance-sheet leveraging involves improved credit performance involves weakening credit performance

initiatives, we believe shares should trade and contracting credit spreads. In such an and widening credit spreads. In such an

to $14, reflecting an 12.5% NOI yield on environment, we'd expect MSDL shares to environment, we'd expect MSDL shares to

forward NOI. trade to $16, reflecting an 11.5% yield on trade to $13, reflecting a 13.5% yield on

forward NOI. forward NOI.

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