NCDL: Recap: Ready to Lean In

Research evidence excerpt

NCDL: Recap: Ready to Lean In

BDC Equity Research

Wells Fargo Express Takeaways

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) | Rating: Equal Weight | Price Target: $13.00

Analyst: Finian P. O'Shea

Financials Investment Thesis

We assign NCDL an Equal Weight rating based on the company'sFY (Dec) 2026E 2027E 2028E

$ near-NAV valuation, lower-than-average spreads (due to a tilt

ESTIMATES toward first-lien investments), more senior liability profile, and

EPS some NAV decay during a period with relatively low credit losses

Q1 0.41 A 0.38 E 0.35 E in the BDC industry (post-'21). NCDL's origination model makes it

Q2 0.39 E 0.37 E 0.35 E more heavily reliant on spread income with less OID upside from

Q3 0.39 E 0.36 E 0.34 E

Q4 0.38 E 0.35 E 0.34 E velocity.

AN 1.57 E 1.46 E 1.38 E

Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios

WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS

Consensus Estimate 1.59 E 1.57 E 1.48 E

Difference from Consensus (7.1)% (6.8)% Upside Scenario $14.00

VALUATION

Base Case $13.00

P/E 8.7x 9.4x 9.9x * $13.66

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate

Downside Scenario $12.00

$10 $11 $12 $13 $17

*As of 05/08/26

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.

Base Case | $13.00 Upside Scenario | $14.00 Downside Scenario | $12.00

Considering its portfolio composition An upside scenario in the near term likely A downside scenario in the near term likely

(nearly all income-producing assets) but involves improved credit performance involves weakening credit performance

with potential for higher credit costs and contracting credit spreads. In such an and widening credit spreads. In such an

through below 95s, we estimate NCDL environment, we'd expect NCDL shares to environment, we'd expect NCDL shares