Commercial Metals Company "Rebar Proves Resilient; Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Jones

Research evidence excerpt

Commercial Metals Company "Rebar Proves Resilient; Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Jones

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

Commercial Metals Company Equities

United StatesRebar Proves Resilient; Upgrade to Buy

Mining

12-month rating Buy

Underperformance provides an attractive entry point Prior : Neutral

We upgrade CMC to Buy from Neutral & raise our PT to $89 (from $79) following ~40% 12m price target US$89.00

YTD underperformance vs peers, creating attractive entry as key downside risks to US Prior : US$79.00

rebar pricing have eased. Our change in view reflects import pressure peaking, not

Price (12 May 2026) US$69.67

accelerating, with 1Q26 imports already tracking historical averages, the import

arbitrage (arb) window closing as Turkish prices rise, & advancing trade case, with final RIC: CMC.N BBG: CMC US

duties May. Domestic capacity also appears less disruptive, with Hybar nearing steady

Trading data and key metrics

state & most incremental supply concentrated among disciplined incumbents CMC/

52-wk range US$83.21-46.13

NUE, reinforcing a more stable, duopolistic market structure. Despite rebar lagging HRC,

metal spreads remain near 3yr highs, & $30–50/st price increases point to upside. With Market cap. US$7.80b

US rebar holding ~$900/st vs CMC pricing in ~$780/st in 2027/28, limited USMCA carve Shares o/s 112m (COM)

out risk, & growing contribution from higher quality Construction businesses supporting Free float 98%

FCF & multiple support, we see a clear path to improving earnings visibility, including ~ Avg. daily volume ('000) 371

$1.6b in 2027 EBITDA (vs cons ~$1.4b) & stock re rating from ~6.6x on UBSe towards Avg. daily value (m) US$24.6

our target ~8.1x as trade outcomes & pricing discipline become evident. Common s/h equity (08/26E) US$4.81b

P/BV (08/26E) 1.6x