Near-Term Earnings Moving Higher; Precast Businesses in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Near-Term Earnings Moving Higher; Precast Businesses in Focus

Commercial Metals - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E

Total Revenues 7,798 9,485 10,534

Cost of Sales 6,578 7,712 8,686 Valuation

DD&A 286 390 430 Our $77 target price represents 8.3x/7.7x our FY2026 /

FY2027 core EBITDA estimates. SG&A 701 899 948

Interest Expense 45 151 179 Upside Scenario $80.00

Net Income 85 655 663 Our upside scenario share price of $80 represents ~7.0x bull

case EBITDA.

Adjusted EPS $0.74 $5.86 $5.94

EBITDA 837 1,362 1,375 Downside Scenario $60.00

Our downside scenario of $60 represents 8.0x bear case EBIT 551 972 945

EBITDA.

Diluted Shares Outstanding 114 112 112 in USD

Cash Flow Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E

-13% +11% +16%

Operating Cash Flow 715 934 1,138

Investing Cash Flow (347) (3,053) (350) Downside Current Target Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario Financing Cash Flow (183) 1,798 (89) 60.00 69.20 77.00 80.00

Change in Cash 186 (320) 699

Beg Cash Balance 860 1,046 726 Key Catalysts

The primary driver for shares of CMC is domestic long Ending Cash Balance 1,046 726 1,425

product metal margins, which are driven by a combination

Free Cash Flow 312.25 383.70 788.29 of factors including construction and infrastructure demand,

domestic supply, and imports. M&A. Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E

Cash & Equivalents 1,043 725 1,423 Company Description

Other Total Current Assets 2,452 2,898 2,898 Commercial Metals Company recycles and manufactures

steel and steel products through a portfolio of upstream and Total Assets 7,172 9,999 10,619

downstream assets and primarily serves the construction

Total Current Liabilities 1,259 1,488 1,488 market. Further, the company provides early stage

construction solutions. Total Liabilities 2,979 5,264 5,264