CRCL: ARC Presale & Agentic Commentary Buoy Shares

Research evidence excerpt

CRCL: ARC Presale & Agentic Commentary Buoy Shares

Payments, Processors, & IT Services

Payments & Processors - Market Overweight

CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP, INC. (CRCL) May 11, 2026

CRCL: ARC Presale & Agentic Commentary Buoy Shares Rating:

Underperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $131.76

CRCL demonstrated stronger RLDC margins in its 1Q results despite slower Price Target:

circulation trends. Guidance was maintained and we believe favorable sentiment $65

surrounding ARC drove much of today's outperformance, though long-term Prior: $55

% Upside:

impacts remain unclear. (50.7)%

View CRCL Model

●1Q26 Results: Reserve income missed estimates by 3%, in-line with our View Comp Table

expectations, though better distribution costs drove a ~2% beat on RLDC (41% Company Information

margin, ~2ppts higher vs. midpoint of guide). Adj. EBITDA also beat by 14%, 52-Week Range $50 - $263

with add-backs aiding much of the beat. FY guidance was unchanged, however, Market Cap. (MM) $30,107

Enterprise Value (MM) $30,446

shares notably outperformed following the ARC token presale announcement, Shares Out. (MM) 228.5

which raised $222mn at a $3bn network valuation and positions ARC as the Avg. Value Traded (MM) $1,891.97

coordination / incentive token for CRCL's stablecoin network. Shares finished SI% of Float 12.6%

+16% vs. S&P +1%, with BTC +3% and other crypto names up LSD to MSD

today See Exhibit 1. 300 250

150 ●Overall, we maintain our cautious view pending: 1) a final resolution on

the Clarity Act, which CRCL now views as supportive given it could permit 100

stablecoin rewards tied to various payments use cases; 2) more visibility on 50

USDC circulation growth potential amid rising competition; and 3) a clearer 0 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26