CRCL: Better RLDC Margins Outweigh Softer Revenues

Research evidence excerpt

CRCL: Better RLDC Margins Outweigh Softer Revenues

Payments, Processors, & IT Services

FLASH

FLASH: CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP, INC. (CRCL) May 11, 2026

CRCL: Better RLDC Margins Outweigh Softer Revenues Rating:

Underperform ●1Q26 Results: Total revenue & reserve income of $694mn -3% vs. consensus Price:

of $713mn and our $685mn. Other revenues of $42mn +8% vs. consensus $113.67

of $39mn & our $34mn. RLDC margin of 41% +209bps vs. consensus 39.3% Price Target:

$55 and our 38.9%. Adjusted operating expenses (newer definition - ex-D&A, SBC,

% Upside:

and digital asset gain/loss, charity, legal, and M&A) of $136mn -3% vs. our (51.6)%

$139.2mn. Adj. EBITDA of $151mn +14% vs. consensus of $133.1mn and our

$127.6mn, with close to half of that beat driven by charitable contribution add- Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Priced as of 05/08/26

backs.

●Set-Up & Stock Reaction: YTD CRCL stock +43% has been well ahead of BTC

-6% and other digital asset companies as industry legislative momentum has

improved with respect to passing the Clarity Act. This despite stalling USDC

circulation growth, even while industry momentum has accelerated on using Daniel Krebs dkrebs@wolferesearch.com

stablecoins for back-end payment settlement. CRCL also launched the Circle (646) 582-9312

Agentic Stack which aims to better position USDC as a key agentic commerce View CRCL Model

infrastructure and will include agent wallets, marketplace, and nanopayments Darrin Peller

as small as $0.000001. Shares are trading up ~3% pre-market, in our view due dpeller@wolferesearch.com

to favorable RLDC and margin trends despite softer revenues (which were likely (646) 582-9310 View Darrin’s Research

expected to some extent, in our view).

Cameron Dyer

cdyer@wolferesearch.com