Circle 1Q26 Top-Line Miss Overpowered by Long-Term Vision; Well-Controlled Distribution Costs Contribute to an EPS Beat

Research evidence excerpt

Circle 1Q26 Top-Line Miss Overpowered by Long-Term Vision; Well-Controlled Distribution Costs Contribute to an EPS Beat

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

12 May 2026

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Circle

1Q26 Top-Line Miss Overpowered by Long-Term Overweight

Vision; Well-Controlled Distribution Costs Contribute to CRCL, CRCL US

an EPS Beat Price (11 May 26):$131.76

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$155.00

Prior (Dec-26):$112.00

Circle printed 1Q26 GAAP EPS of $0.21, ahead of Bloomberg consensus $0.17

due to well-controlled third party distribution costs and low taxes despite a top-line Brokers, Asset Managers &

Exchangesmiss. Reserve income totaled $653mn, slightly lower than expected (vs. cons

$677mn, JPMe $657mn) due to a lower USDC market cap and reserve yield, offset Kenneth B. Worthington, CFA AC

by slightly higher other revenue. 1Q26 Adj. EBITDA (old definition) totaled (1-212) 622-6613

kenneth.b.worthington@jpmorgan.com

$141mn vs. cons $138mn, but note a new definition ($151mn) now adds back

SBC-related payroll expense (~$11mn). Overall, we think 1Q26 results were Madeline Daleiden

(1-212) 622-4911

indicative of the more resilient nature of stablecoins (cap flattish in 1Q26) versus madeline.daleiden@jpmchase.com

broader digital asset markets (down ~20%) as the use cases continue to develop;

Michael Cho

furthermore, we think the progress towards Circle’s longer-term vision via the (1-212) 622-3619

ARC announcement and strong other revenue growth helped support the stock michael.cho@jpmchase.com