Fixed Income Chart Of The Day: US CPI: Sticky services

Research evidence excerpt

Fixed Income Chart Of The Day: US CPI: Sticky services

Deutsche Bank

Research

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Fixed Income Chart Of The Day 14 May 2026

US CPI: Sticky services

Markus Heider

This week’s April US CPI report showed some signs of stickiness in ex-rental Macro Strategist

services inflation. While core goods inflation has been driven up by tariffs (and +44-20-754-52167

higher energy costs are expected to keep inflation relatively high into next year),

and rental inflation remains subdued following the strong increase in apartment Gabriele Cozzi

Strategist supply seen over the past couple of years, services inflation excluding rents/OER +44-20-754-17714

is perhaps a better reflection of trends in underlying domestic drivers such as

inflation expectations and labour costs, though higher energy prices are likely Francis Yared

feeding through here too, particularly via transport services. Strategist

+44-20-754-54017

Ex-rental services inflation had fallen from a 3–4% range in 2000-2009 to a 2–3%

range in 2010-2020, before rising during the pandemic (Figure 1). This had been Matthew Raskin

Strategist

broadly in line with trends in wages (Figure 1) and indicators of inflation +1-212-250-1741

expectations. Since the end of 2022, it had been on a disinflation trajectory, and

a key question for the inflation outlook has been where it ultimately settles. Ioannis Sokos

Since Q2 last year, it has moved broadly sideways at around 3% — right on the +44-20-754-75680

boundary between the two previous regimes — but rose again in April to 3.4%,

the highest level since February last year. Inflation has remained a public focus, Soniya Sadeesh

and surveys of medium-term inflation expectations are still generally above 2010- +44-20-754-73091

2020 averages.