Alibaba: AI commerciality becomes visible

Research evidence excerpt

Alibaba: AI commerciality becomes visible

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Alibaba 14 May 2026

Forecast Change

Asia

China

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 13 May 2026 (USD) 145.81

BABA.N BABA US NYS BABA

Price target - 12mth (USD) 195.00

Technology

189.34 -

Software & Services 52-week range (USD) 103.83

NASDAQ 100 29,367

AI commerciality becomes visible

Valuation & Risks

Peter Milliken, CFA

Incrementally better trends, and AI commentary encourages Research Analyst

Alibaba reported 4Q revenue of RMB243bn (+3% YoY, or +11% YoY excluding the +852-2203 6190

impact from disposals of Sun Art and Intime). That represents a pick-up from the 3Q

Leo Chiang, CFA

9% underlying rate. The better performance stems from improving monetization at Research Analyst

Tmall and Taobao, and an acceleration in cloud. The company led off discussions +852-220-36240

of the quarter talking about cloud, where external revenue growth accelerated to

40%, with AI related revenues continuing to grow at triple digit rates. Key changes

Encouragingly, management gave guidance on how these revenues and margins 185.00 to

Price target ↑ 5.4%

are likely to ramp up this year, with MaaS expected to reach a RMB30bn run rate by 195.00

year-end. This really highlights BABA's valuation, given that the USD65bn market 1,162,992 to

Sales (FYE) ↓ -1.8%

cap firm, Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), is only set to achieve that level of revenue in 1,142,076

mid 2029, according to Bloomberg consensus. 116,907.7 to

DB EBIT ↓ -12.6%

102,154.8

An operating loss of RMB848m was recorded, down from an RMB28bn gain a year 127,937.2 to

Net profit (FYE) ↓ -15.9%

earlier due to investments in quick commerce and AI (Qwen sits in "others", which 107,547.9

dropped to a RMB21bn loss in the quarter).