Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.: Agentic AI Monetization Has Begun

Research evidence excerpt

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.: Agentic AI Monetization Has Begun

Equity Research

China Technology

13 May 2026

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Agentic AI Monetization Has Begun

Earnings ReviewCloud growth accelerated further to over 38% yoy; Agentic AI

ARR ramping up; Reiterate OW and PT moves higher to $195.

BABA OVERWEIGHT

Unchanged

Summary: In March Q, AliCloud revenue growth continued on its acceleration path and

China Technology POSITIVEdelivered 38% yoy growth (40% yoy growth to external customers), driven by surging demand

for compute from customers. Impressively, management is now guiding 10bn RMB ARR for AI

Price Target USD 195.00products by June and 30bn RMB ARR by end of FY. Admittedly, these ARRs are much lower than

raised 5% from USD 186.00

that of US AI labs. But we are encouraged that BABA is already generating close to $100m per

Price (12-May-26) USD 134.78month revenue from token sales and other agentic AI revenue streams and estimate that the

Potential Upside/Downside +44.7%company is likely to triple that revenue by March 27. As we have repeated in our recent research,

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

agentic AI (exemplified by open claw or China claws) is a game changer and has created this

massive TAM in enterprise productivity, which BABA and its main competitors are racing to

Market Cap (USD mn) 323343establish a dominant position. In addition, one can argue BABA is the only hyperscaler in China.

Shares Outstanding (mn) 2399.05And given the widespread constraint in compute not only in China but also around the world,

Free Float (%) N/ABABA is among the earliest beneficiaries of the global AI revolution.

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 13.9

What we liked: Excluding losses in quick commerce, profits for China commerce stable yoy; Dividend Yield (%) 0.78