First Read: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway "20% listing fare hikes for..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway "20% listing fare hikes for..."

Global Research

12 May 2026abc

First Read

EquitiesBeijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway

20% listing fare hikes for Beijing-Shanghai China

route, a positive surprise Transportation Services

12-month rating Buy

12m price target Rmb6.70

Expect both volume and price to rise in 2026-27E, unlocking long-term upside

The company announced 20% listing fare hikes for Beijing-Shanghai route and Hefei-

Bengbu route on May 11, beating our and market expectations. In our report "China Price (11 May 2026) Rmb4.88

Transport Infrastructure Sector: Energy prices reshaping transport demand"published RIC: 601816.SS BBG: 601816 CH

on May 7, 2026, we flagged passenger traffic of BJ-SH SHSR may benefit from rising

Trading data and key metrics

global energy prices and airfares. Now the increase in listing fare should support the

company's self-owned service fare growth and unlock long-term earnings growth 52-wk range Rmb6.02-4.84

upside. Given the floating pricing mechanism for BJ-SH HSR, the actual fare increase is Market cap. Rmb239b/US$35.1b

likely to be less than 20%. Our sensitivity analysis shows that if the company's self- Shares o/s 48,926m (ORDA)

owned service fares increase by 5%/10%/15%/20% compared to our baseline forecast Free float 5%

in 2027E, the company's net profit may enhance by 4%/8%/12%/16%. We expect Avg. daily volume ('000) 144,340

investors to react positively and reiterate our Buy rating. Avg. daily value (m) Rmb721.7

Common s/h equity (12/26E) Rmb215b

Why now? P/BV (12/26E) 1.1x

We attribute the price hikes to: 1) the listing fare has not been adjusted for several years Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.7x

since the implementation of the floating price mechanism in December 2020 (the latest