Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway - A Benchmark price lift at 20% a positive surprise associated with earnings upside; Raise PT

Research evidence excerpt

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway - A Benchmark price lift at 20% a positive surprise associated with earnings upside; Raise PT

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

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Beijing-Shanghai High Speed

Railway - A Overweight

601816.SS, 601816 CH

Benchmark price lift at 20% a positive surprise Price (12 May 26):Rmb5.05

associated with earnings upside; Raise PT ▲Price Target (Jun-27):Rmb6.90 Prior (Dec-26):Rmb6.20

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (BSHSR) announced last night it would

raise the benchmark ticket price by 20%, which represents a positive surprise to us. Infrastructure, Industrials &

TransportWe believe the news conveys two underlying positive messages: 1) China's HSR

pricing mechanism is becoming increasingly market-oriented, widening the Sunny Su AC

possibility for more flexible pricing adjustment actions looking ahead, with more (852) 2800 8551

sunny.su@jpmorgan.com

rounds of pricing hikes to be associated with the speed upgrade towards 450 km/h

trains, and 2) an optimistic traffic volume recovery outlook for 2026E, Karen Li, CFA

(852) 2800-8589

underpinning the price lift execution. Our sensitivity analysis suggests a nearly karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

linear relationship between ticket price and BSHSR’s earnings, which we expect

Jenny Qiu, CFA

to directly boost BSHSR’s near-term earnings delivery visibility. Therefore, we (852) 2800 8503

update our BSHSR model, factoring in the price lift impact as well as FY25 jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com