Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway: Risk Reward Update

Update

May 18, 2026 03:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MBeijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway | Asia Pacific Qianlei Fan, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Qianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1875

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SS,

What’s Changed 601816 CH)

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SS) From To Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure | China

Base Case Rmb6.70 Rmb6.60 Stock Rating Overweight

Updated Components Industry View In-Line

EPS Price target Rmb6.60

Shr price, close (May 15, 2026) Rmb4.96

Investment Thesis

52-Week Range Rmb6.07-4.82

Risk Reward Themes

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

EPS (Rmb)** 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.36

Risk Reward for Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Prior EPS (Rmb)** 0.27 0.29 0.31 -

(601816.SS) has been updated Unlessframeworkotherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

We adjust up earnings forecasts in 2026-2027 by 4% and 8%, respectively, factoring

in 1) better traffic amid market share gain from airlines in 2026; and 2) price hikes

announced in May-26. We also introduce 2028 EPS of Rmb0.36. Our earnings

forecasts are conservative in terms of effective price hikes in 2026-2027 considering

macro challenges.

We have slightly adjusted down mid-term revenue growth rates, to reflect a

moderate growth in China's rail pax traffic that mildly above China's GDP growth.

Our base case per share value falls by 1% after we roll valuation date to mid-27. Our

probability weighted price target is unchanged after rounding amid unchanged bull

and bear case per share value.