Ferrovial: Growing even faster, PO raised to €68, retain Buy on Ferrovial

Research evidence excerpt

Ferrovial: Growing even faster, PO raised to €68, retain Buy on Ferrovial

Accessible version

Ferrovial

Growing even faster, PO raised to €68,

retain Buy on Ferrovial

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 68.00 EUR | Price: 59.90 EUR

25 for 2026: pricing power stronger for longer 11 May 2026

We revise our estimates on Ferrovial, following much stronger-than-expected Q1’26 Equity

consolidated results and Q1 407 ETR results. Both releases demonstrated continued

significant pricing power in the core motorways (given the very low price elasticity of

Key Changesdemand), along with an accelerated cash upstream from the assets (ie the ETR) to

Ferrovial’s hold co. Catalysts are also emerging beyond Q1 results, with Ferrovial (EUR) Previous Current

bidding on the I-24 and I-285 projects, with awards expected in July and October 2026, Price Obj. 67.00 68.00

respectively. No value creation from the pipeline is included in our PO. We increase our 2026E Rev (m) 9,926.9 10,146.0

consolidated EBITDA forecast by 2-3% over 2026-27E and our EPS forecasts by 3-4% 2027E Rev (m) 10,057.5 10,366.5

over the same period. PO up to €68 from €67. Buy. 2028E Rev (m) 10,351.1 10,664.5

2026E EPS 0.93 0.95

2027E EPS 1.10 1.13Sound earnings momentum near-term and medium-term

While most of European transportation infra coverage faces downward pressure on 2028E EPS 1.26 1.30

earnings, our analysis suggests Ferrovial could see upside to consensus (BofAe 2026E

consolidated EBITDA is 4% above VA consensus). Medium-term growth outlook looks Marcin Wojtal >>

Research Analyst

sound - we project 407 ETR to deliver nearly 90% cumulative EBITDA growth over 2026- MLI (UK)

30E, while US managed lanes should achieve >70% EBITDA growth (in USD), based on marcin.wojtal@bofa.com

our forecasts Jake McCarthy >>

MLI (UK)