Ferrovial 407-ETR: Q2 EBITDA ~7% above JPMe; ~4.6% above excluding Schedule 22 provision reversal

Research evidence excerpt

Ferrovial 407-ETR: Q2 EBITDA ~7% above JPMe; ~4.6% above excluding Schedule 22 provision reversal

ndia Private Limited

• Noteworthy Areas: 1) Q2 Revenues of C$616m (+18% y/y) were 3% above Specialist Sales contact details:

our estimates, driven by tariffs 6% above our estimates, with traffic 3% below

our estimates. 2) Latest reported monthly traffic in June shows trends at -0.3% Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales - European Industrials

y/y which compares to April traffic at -3.3% and May traffic at -4.7%. 3) Q2 (44-20) 7742-8733

EBITDA of C$549m (+24% y/y) was 7% above our expectations with margins sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

at c.89.1%, (JPMe: 85.7%), supported by the Schedule 22 provision reversal. Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

If Schedule 22 had printed in line with our estimate margins would have been European Energy

87.1%, still slightly above our forecast. 4) The Q2 Schedule 22 impact was a (44-20) 7134-1356

positive C$2.6m provision reversal, with the H1 26 provision of C$5.5m lower ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

than the C$8.1m provision booked in Q1. Ferrovial said that this reflected the

407-ETR revising down its Schedule 22 estimate for 2026 as a result of more

effective driving offers expected in 2026. 5) Net income came in 3% above our

estimates at C$267m. 6) At the July Board meeting, a C$550m dividend was

approved for Q3 2026 (more than double Q3 2025’s C$250m).

• Outlook & Guidance: The company confirmed its 2026 outlook, expecting

revenue growth driven by traffic and tariff growth, and a y/y increase in EBIT.

Regarding promotions, the ETR plans to send at least 1.8 million drivers an

offer each month and to launch a new loyalty program in 2026.

• Likely changes to consensus: We expect consensus for the asset to nudge

upwards on the print.