Ferrovial Expect group underlying EBITDA up ~6% y/y

Research evidence excerpt

Ferrovial Expect group underlying EBITDA up ~6% y/y

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

10 July 2026

Ferrovial Overweight

FER.MC, FER SM

Expect group underlying EBITDA up ~6% y/y Price (09 Jul 26):€56.72

Price Target (Dec-27):€65.00

Ferrovial will report group results on 28 July (after U.S. market close) and European Building & Construction

management will host a conference call the following day while the 407-ETR and Infrastructure

reports on 22 July (after Canada market close). Overall, we expect Q2 consolidated Elodie Rall AC

group revenues to be up 1.6% y/y at c.€2.4bn and EBITDA to rise 12.4% y/y to (44-20) 7134-5911

€390m (+5.7% y/y excluding EBITDA from others, which was affected by a €35m elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

provision in Q2 25). The EBITDA growth we look for is driven by the toll roads, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

where we see EBITDA up ~7% y/y on easing FX headwinds and continued pricing Zaim Beekawa

growth, albeit sequentially weaker as the impact of technology upgrades at the (44-20) 7134-4175

zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

DFW assets in Q2 25 annualises. For the 407-ETR we expect flat traffic but J.P. Morgan Securities plc

sequentially stronger pricing effects as the company’s promotions become Jamie Smallbone

increasingly targeted; we see overall EBITDA increasing 15.4% y/y. We expect the (44-20) 3493-7015

focus into results to be on whether the elevated oil price has impacted traffic, jamie.smallbone@jpmorgan.com

commentary regarding the company’s prospects in the bidding for the I-285 East J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and I-24 projects and on updates regarding the NTO where the start of operations Manshi Sinha

was recently further delayed. (91-22) 6157 5111

manshi.sinha@jpmchase.com

• Expect EBITDA up 2.4% in Construction y/y.