Something Has to Give

Research evidence excerpt

Something Has to Give

tatements when fear again supersedes greed, and the market refocuses on the

▪ Commodity Forecast & Outlook still-unresolved energy crisis. Another week where this disconnect

▪ Onshore and Offshore Rig Rundown widened.

▪ Stock Performance 1Q26 Energy Earnings in the Books - a Cycle to Remember. 1Q

Upcoming Events earnings reinforced the same underlying message: the sector is

generating cash in a tighter commodity backdrop, but the market is still

ISI Energy Rundown – Thursdays at 10AM ET reluctant to pay for it. Big Oil updates were uneven, with CVX screening

Register here as the cleaner story while XOM carried more visible behind-the-Strait

Please contact your Evercore ISI sales rep for details and LNG exposure. In E&P, the most interesting shift was not a

wholesale growth response, but a quiet step away from rigid capital-

Links to Prior Reports

return frameworks, with FANG and APA prioritizing flexibility over

May 2026 formula. Lower 48 activity is responding, but still gradually, with the US

▪ Drinking from a Firehose rig count moving higher and our base case still centered on roughly 35

April 2026 incremental Permian rigs by mid-year rather than an unchecked shale

▪ Markets Got a Truce, Barrels Need Flow surge. Refining was the clear cyclical winner with MPC providing a

▪ Headline Truce, Physical Friction reminder of what a prolonged peak could look like. Revisions skewed

▪ Back from the Brink, Far From De-risked positive across operations, capital returns, and refining margins, but

▪ Fat Tails Abound energy equities continue to lag the commodity move leaving the sector

increasingly mispriced if the assumed de-escalation does not arrive.

Most read reports:

Where we stand? There is no putting ‘humpty’ back together again for