Alibaba Group Holding: Cloud Poised to Drive Earnings Upgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Alibaba Group Holding: Cloud Poised to Drive Earnings Upgrade

IdeaM

Risk Reward – Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e

China retail marketplaces GMV

8,160 8,405 8,741 9,178

(Rmb, mn)

Take rate (%) 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Revenue growth, especially in core e-commerce RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

in China Better core e-commerce monetization, driving

Monetization rate (i.e., Alibaba's Chinese retail earnings growth upside Sales / 1,099,617.6

marketplace revenue/GMV) Faster enterprise digitalization, re-accelerating Revenue 934,841.9 1,213,784.0

Non-GAAP EBITA margins cloud revenue growth (Rmb, mn) 1,137,357.0

Stronger AI demand to drive cloud revenue

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 143,284

EBITDA APAC, ex Japan, Mainland More intense competition 122,680.8 240,036.9 0-10% (Rmb, mn) China and India Higher-than-expected reinvestment costs 164,173.8

0-10% Europe ex UK Weaker consumption amid a slower post-Covid

0-10% India recovery

0-10% Japan Slower pace of enterprise digitalization pace Net income

0-10% Latin America Regulation - additional scrutiny of Internet (Rmb, mn) 75,389 145,919.0

0-10% MEA platforms 115,778.0

0-10% UK

10-20% North America

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 50-60% Mainland China 30.4 74.1

(Rmb)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 80.9% 49.1

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x

HF Sector Net Exposure 10.7% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.